It’s not an original idea, many have stated the opinion that the Sprint Cup Series will end up with only 11 main teams, each fielding four cars. With all the mergers going on right now, and limited sponsorship opportunities, it’s becoming more and more clear to me that this, or something very similar, is what will likely happen. This got me thinking, which teams would be included in the eleven? Let’s see if we can work that out. Let’s start with the teams that already have at least four cars:
1. Hendrick Motorsports (5, 24, 48, 88)
2. Roush - Fenway Racing (6, 16, 17, 26, 99) Must get rid of one by 2010, presumably headed to Yates Racing.
3. Richard Childress Racing (07, 29, 31, 33)
Add two solid 3-car teams:
4. Joe Gibbs Racing (11, 18, 20)
5. Penske Racing (2, 12, 77)
OK, lets add teams involved in mergers or otherwise trying to get to four cars by the start of the ‘09 season:
6. Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing (1, 8, 41, 42)
7. GEM-Petty (9, 19, 10, 43)
…and a merged 3-car team
8. Michael Waltrip-JTG Daugherty Racing (00, 55, 47)
…as well as a couple of solid 2-car teams:
9. Red Bull Racing (82, 83)
10. Stewart-Haas Racing (14, 39)
10 teams fielding 34 cars. Who will be number eleven? Provided teams like Penske, Stewart-Haas and Red Bull soon expand to 4 cars each (bringing the total car count to 41 including one Roush car that would have to be cut), who will end up being able to survive with the rest? We are left with are teams such as:
Yates Racing (28, 38, 98 - if sponsorships pan out for the 28 and 38) Should be the benefactor of the cast off 5th Roush-Fenway team. If so, this could be the legitimate team to fill the 11th slot.
Robby Gordon Racing (7) His admirable one-car effort with limited funding will, regretably, find it hard to survive in a sea of mega-teams. Might have to merge with a larger team.
Furniture Row Racing (78) Again, a valiant effort, but the team based in Denver, Colorado is already cutting their schedule back and probably won’t be around (in the Cup Series) much longer.
That leaves the famous #21 of the Wood Brothers. Without their being absorbed by one of the other big teams, the future of this historic team is also in doubt. We also have Germain Racing, champions in the truck series, attempting to field a car in 2009 (#13) for Max Papis. This is another one-car effort that will have an up-hill climb to success.
So, barring a new multi-car team entering the fray with solid funding, these 10 teams plus one more (probably Yates) will end up surviving.
That’s 11 teams. With the manufacturers limiting their contributions and the economic conditions that exist, only the very strong will survive. One or more of the top ten I have listed may end up falling by the wayside as a result.
Gone are the days of single car efforts and teams with very little funding being able to “make it” at the highest level of stock car racing. The question is, if we start losing some of these “big” teams who aren’t able the survive this economic crunch, will we continue to see NASCAR field 43 cars per race?
We’ll see.